- EUR/USD reverses the recent weakness and targets 1.0200.
- German 10y Bund yields add to the ongoing recovery.
- Germany Construction PMI eased to 43.7 in July.
The single currency so far manages to regain some upside traction and pushes EUR/USD back to the 1.0180 region on Thursday.
EUR/USD stronger on USD-selling
The now soft stance surrounding the greenback allows the current rebound in the risk complex and prompts EUR/USD to attempt another move to the key barrier in the 1.0200 region.
The dollar, in the meantime, appears on the back foot despite higher yields and the recent hawkish rhetoric from several Fed speakers, who in general reinforced the ongoing tightening process and advocated for further rate hikes in the next months, always amidst the current context persistent elevated inflation.
The bounce in the pair so far comes pari passu with another improvement in the German 10y Bund yields, this time flirting with the 0.90% area.
In Germany, the Construction PMI worsened to 43.7 in July and Factory Orders contracted at a monthly 0.4% in June.
Data across the pond will include Initial Claims and the Balance of Trade.
What to look for around EUR
EUR/USD looks to regain composure and initially targets the 1.0200 zone ahead of recent tops near 1.0300, always on the back of the renewed selling pressure hitting the dollar.
Price action around the European currency, in the meantime, is expected to closely follow dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns, fragmentation worries and the Fed-ECB divergence.
On the negatives for the single currency emerges the so far increasing speculation of a potential recession in the region, which looks propped up by dwindling sentiment readings among investors and the renewed downtrend in some fundamentals.
Key events in the euro area this week: Germany Construction PMI (Thursday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation of the ECB hiking cycle. Italian elections in late September. Fragmentation risks amidst the ECB’s normalization of monetary conditions. Impact of the war in Ukraine on the region’s growth prospects and inflation.
EUR/USD levels to watch
So far, spot is advancing 0.17% at 1.0180 and a breakout of 1.0293 (monthly high August 2) would target 1.0409 (55-day SMA) en route to 1.0615 (weekly high June 27). Next on the downside comes the next support at 1.0096 (weekly low July 26) seconded by 1.0000 (psychological level) and finally 0.9952 (2022 low July 14).
