EUR/USD Forecast Video for 31.03.23
Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis
The Euro initially dipped a bit against the US dollar during the Thursday trading session, but then turned around to rally rather significantly. By doing so, the market has shown that there is still significant bullish pressure up there, but at the same time we still see a lot of resistance just above so it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where we simply rip to the upside. Ultimately, this market will continue to be very noisy as traders out there try to bet on the Federal Reserve coming to bail them out.
That being said, the Federal Reserve has remained very steadfast in its desire to keep monetary policy tight, so with that being the case, it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see the US dollar eventually strengthen. It’s also worth noting that this is an area that has been trouble multiple times for the Euro, so one would think that it only takes a little bit of a push to make this thing drop. If we do break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Thursday, then it’s very possible we go down to the 1.07 level.
On the upside, the first challenge will be to break above the shooting star from last week, opening up the 1.0950 level. After that we have a lot of noise near the 1.10 level, which of course causes a lot of issues in and of itself. With that being the case, I think you got a situation where you are looking for signs of exhaustion that you can fade, just as we had last week. Whether or not that occurs remains to be seen, because of course the bond markets are all over the place but if we do start to see interest rates in America start to drop even further, then it might blow that narrative out of the water. However, if we see the interest rates in America start to rally again, then it’s very likely that we drop down towards the 50-Day EMA near the 1.07 level underneath, perhaps even lower than that.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
