Day’s major move likely to be determined by US Fed’s rate hike decision later.
My EUR/USD signal on 14th March was not triggered, as there was no sufficiently bearish price action when the resistance level at $1.0747 was first reached.
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken before 5pm London time today.
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0802 or $1.0876.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0760, $1.0707, $1.0690, or $1.0626.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair, I thought that everything would depend upon the US CPI (inflation) data that was going to be released that day. I expected an upwards movement if the annualized inflation rate fell to 6% or lower.
The rate fell to 6%, and following the data release, the EUR/USD did rise over the rest of the day’s trading session, as high as $1.0760, so this was a good call.
This pair has seen ups and downs over the past week. The day after the US CPI release, the current US banking crisis began with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. This sent the price dropping very sharply at the end of last week, but it has recovered ever since. This has been helped by the European Central Bank hiking rates by 0.50% although this move was not a surprise to the market.
The price has been rising for some days now in line with the long-term bearish trend we see in the US Dollar. The price action has been printing higher stairstep support levels, and the Euro has been one of the strongest major currencies, so the technical picture looks bullish.
The problem for anyone wanting to trade the US Dollar or any major market today is that the US Federal Reserve will be deciding later whether to hike rates, but it is not clear what effect the Fed’s chosen course of action will have on the market. Most analysts are expecting a 0.25% rate hike but there is a strong chance that no hike at all will be made.
If there is no hike, it might be that stock markets will rise and the US Dollar will fall, but the absence of a hike could also generate fear that the Fed suspects more banking contagion, which could actually cause the stock market to drop.
It is likely however that a failure to make any hike will be bearish for the US Dollar, and hence bullish for the EUR/USD.
The price is likely to consolidate narrowly above $1.0760 or around this price area until the Fed’s release later.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of the Federal Funds Rate and the FOMC Statement and Projections at 6pm London time. There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the EUR.
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