The dollar moved lower today with the biggest move coming vs the GBP. The GBPUSD is closing near session high up 0.63%. For the GBPUSD it moved above the high from yesterday near 1.23603, turning sellers to buyers. The high price reached to 1.2392 with the next target near 1.2409 area.
GBP is the strongest and the USD is the weakest
The USDCHF was lower and near low for the day as the US session began. That low took the price to a low of 0.9125 which was just within a swing area between 0.91179 and 0. 91264. The bounce took the USDCHF up toward 0.9144, but still below resistance at 0.9154. It would take a move above area in the new day to give the dip buyers more hope. Absent that and a move below the swing area at 0.91179 and 0.91264 (and open the door for more selling).
The USDCAD moved lower today and in the process tested its 100 day MA at 1.3514. The last time the price of the USDCAD closed below the 100 day MA was back on February 20. The price is trading just above that MA at 1.3521 currently. The low for the day reached 1.35151 (just above the 100 day MA). That MA will be a key barometer for both buyers and sellers into the new trading day.
Data today showed Initial jobless claims at 198K. Coming in below 200K keeps the jobs data solid. The US jobs report will be released a week from Friday. Last month the data showed a gain of 311K.
Fed speakers today included Fed’s Barkin, Collins and Kashkari.
Barkin said that he is happy with being data dependent going forward, but that there are reasons to think that inflation battle will take some time.
Fed’s Collins said that some additional policy tightenings would be needed, but then added that one more tightening seems reasonable. She expects the Fed to remain a hold through 2023.
Feds Kashkari said that once we get inflation down, we can get back to pre-pandemic economy with low inflation/low unemployment and decent wage growth.
The Fed speakers tended to be being somewhat dated dependent with focus still on inflation.
In the US treasury market today, yields were mixed with the shorter and higher but the longer and lower:
- two year yield 4.123% +4.4 basis points
- five year yield 3.683% +1.0 basis points
- 10 year yield 3.550% -1.5 basis points
- 30 year yield 3.733% -4.4 basis points
Flow funds into stocks continued as the end of the quarter approaches (tomorrow is the last day of the month). The NASDAQ index is having its best quarter since the 3Q of 2020. The NASDAQ 100 is having its best quarter since Q2 2020. The final numbers today showed:
- Dow industrial average up 141.43 points or 0.43% at 32859.04. For Q1, the Dow Industrial Average is down -0.87%
- S&P index rose 23.02 points or 0.57% at 4050.82. For Q1 the S&P is up 5.5%
- NASDAQ index rose 87.25 points or 0.73% at 12013.48. For Q1 the NASDAQ index is up 14.78%
- Russell 2000 fell -3.215 points or 10118% at 1768.38. For the quarter the Russell 2000 rose a modest 0.40
Tomorrow, the core PCE will be released in the US with the expectations for 0.4%. Key inflation reading for the Fed and the markets.
