Rupee inches up tracking Asian peers but upside capped on geopolitical risks

MUMBAI, Oct 18 (Reuters) – The Indian rupee rose slightly on Wednesday, but was unable to fully capitalise on the gains seen among its Asian peers as risks of further escalation in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East weighed on the domestic unit.

The rupee was at 83.2325 against the U.S. dollar as of 10:45 a.m. IST, compared to its close at 83.2575 in the previous session.

“Volume is there but the market is not moving on either side over the last three-four days,” a foreign exchange trader at a private bank said. Foreign banks are buying U.S. dollars, while public sector banks have been selling the greenback, the trader added.

The dollar index was steady at 106.13 and most Asian currencies rose after stronger-than-expected economic data from China lifted the yuan.

Even as strength in Asian peers provided some relief to the rupee, elevated oil prices continue to linger as a risk factor.

Brent crude oil futures were up nearly 2% at $91.62 as investors wait to see whether diplomatic efforts and a trip by U.S. President Joe Biden to Israel will prevent the conflict in the Middle East from widening.

The rupee is “expected to remain under pressure and the intraday range is 83.17 to 83.28,” said Ritesh Bhansali, vice president at Mecklai Financial. The rupee has hovered in a narrow range between 83.21 and 83.28 this week.

Rupee traders are also closely watching the USD/INR overnight cash rate and forward premiums on concerns over a U.S. dollar shortage spurred by the impending maturity of a central bank dollar/rupee swap transaction next week.

Investors now await U.S. jobless claims data, due on Thursday, for further cues on how the country’s labour market is faring.

U.S. retail sales grew more than expected in September, data released on Tuesday showed, indicating that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are yet to cool down consumer spending.

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