Important GDP, Jobs and Inflation Data on the Docket Next Week

EUR/USD Forecast – Prices, Charts, and Analysis

• Heavyweight EU and German economic data on tap next week.
• FOMC and NFPs likely to add volatility to EUR/USD.

The latest Q1 2024 Euro Forecast is available to download for free

Most Read: ECB Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, EUR/USD Listless Ahead of Press Conference and US Q4 GDP

Thursday’s uneventful ECB meeting left traders with little to go on as President Christine Lagarde held the central bank line saying any upcoming moves in monetary policy remain data dependent. Going into the meeting the official talk was that rates may come down at the end of H1, data-dependent, but the market sees a more aggressive timetable with current pricing showing a rough 75% probability of the first 25 basis point cut being announced at the April 11th meeting. The ECB will likely push back against this market forecast, as the Fed has done over the last few weeks so that they can control the narrative and rein back market expectations if needed.

ECB Implied Rates and Basis Points

The upcoming week is full of high-importance EU and German economic data that will help steer the Euro in the weeks ahead. The first look at Q4 GDP in Germany and the Euro Area is set to show the two economies contracting further, while January inflation is set to fall further. With price pressures seemingly on their way to the central bank’s target, the ECB will need to cut rates soon the economy falling into a technical recession.

In addition, the latest FOMC and BoE policy decisions, and next Friday’s US Jobs Report will add a dose of volatility to both EUR/USD and EUR/GBP.

For all market-moving economic data and events, see the real-time DailyFX Economic Calendar

After touching a 1.0932 high on Wednesday, EUR/USD has slipped back below 1.0900 after markets changed their view on the path of ECB rate cuts. The 200-day simple moving average is currently propping up the pair but a confirmed break below this indicator will leave a cluster of recent lows on with side of 1.0750 as the next target.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Charts Using TradingView

IG retail trader data show 58.93% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.43 to 1.The number of traders net long is 22.58% higher than yesterday and 17.36% higher than last week, while the number of traders net short is 15.04% lower than yesterday and 15.65% lower than last week.

To See What This Means for EUR/USD, Download the Full Retail Sentiment Report Below

What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.