Key points:
- MUFG expect the Bank of Japan to begin to tighten policy next week.
- Ex-BOJ executive says once Bank abandons negative rate further moves will come very slowly
- US retail sales data for February due Thursday – the ranges to watch
- Taiwan Central Bank Governor concerned over electricity price inflation chain reaction
- European Central Bank speakers on Thursday include Schnabel, Knot, de Cos, de Guindos
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0974 (vs. estimate at 7.1875)
- The FOMC meets next week – “more hawkish” is a meaningful risk
- UK RICS measure of house prices rose to its highest since October 2022
- China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Australia next week for talks
- ANZ have raised their end of year gold forecast to $2,300, from $2,200
- Fitch wary on China – says property collapse is continuing “unabated”
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet next week – “the risk leans a bit hawkish”
- BOJ plans to discuss ending negative interest rates at next week’s meeting
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 13 Mar: Forex rates muddle along ahead of PPI/retail sales
- Fitch expect both the Fed and ECB to cut rates 3 times, by a total of 75bp, by year-end
- GS Asset Management re-enters US commercial real estate, citing buying opportunities
- Down day for the broader S&P and Nasdaq indices
- Yellen says it seems unlikely that interest rates will return to pre-pandemic lows
- Trade ideas thread – Thursday, 14 March, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
News and data flow was very light indeed. And movement for major FX was subdued. Traders seem to be content to await, one, the further news on Japanese wage negotiations due Friday, two, the Bank of Japan announcement next Tuesday, the 19th, when hopes are high of an exit from the Bank’s negative short-term interest policy, and three, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and associated projections that follow on the 20th.
USD/JPY ticked a little higher, from lows just under 147.60 to a high just over 147.80. A tiny range. The move correlated with comments made by former Bank of Japan Executive Director Hideo Hayakawa at a gathering in Japan today where he said policy moves after the initial tightening from the Bank would be slow, citing Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s “very cautious character and his focus on building consensus within the board, he will likely take plenty of time and proceed carefully in normalising policy”.
The USD is a little higher elsewhere also, AUD/USD is a notable loser on the session.
Asia-Pacific equity markets were mixed and range-bound.
