- EUR/USD failed to hold early gains yesterday and continued its losses to the 1.073 support level, its lowest in over a month, as political uncertainty in France weighed on investor sentiment.
- French President Macron called for early parliamentary elections in response to the far-right’s success in the European Parliament elections.
- Meanwhile, Macron will retain his presidency and authority over foreign policy and defence, his ability to push through legislation could be affected by the outcome of the election and the appointment of a new prime minister.
Also, there are concerns that the president may resign if his party performs poorly in the upcoming elections, raising concerns about France’s financial situation.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank made its first interest rate cut in five years last week, but adopted a cautious approach to further cuts. On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve is set to keep the federal funds rate steady when it decides on monetary policy today, Wednesday. Note that the updated economic forecasts are aligned, meaning traders are likely to react to the interest rate chart expectations. Furthermore, a reduction in the planned US interest rate cuts from three to two or even one this year could mean a strong rally for the greenback across the board.
On the stock market trading platforms, European stocks continue to lose for the third day, led by banks.
European stock indices continued to lose ground for the third session on Tuesday, with the Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 60 indices falling by around 1% on concerns about political turmoil in France. French President Macron called for early parliamentary elections in response to the far-right’s success in the European Parliament elections. Also, there are concerns about the possibility of the president resigning if his party performs poorly in the next election, raising concerns about the financial situation in France.
Additionally, Traders were cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision today. According to the trading, banking stocks led the losses, down more than 2%, including Société Générale (-5%), BNP Paribas (-4%), UniCredit (-3.6%), Deutsche Bank (-2.9%), and Banco Santander (-2.1%).
EUR/USD Technical analysis and forecast:
The Euro (EUR) recently declined against the U.S. Dollar (USD), falling below the key psychological support level at 1.0800 and reaching a low of 1.0730 before rebounding. Technically, Fibonacci retracement levels indicate potential areas where sellers might be waiting. The 38.2% Fibonacci level is near 1.0798, close to the previous support area, while the 50% level is at 1.0819. also, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is around 1.0840, near the dynamic inflection points at the moving averages.
Regarding moving averages, the 100-day SMA crossing below the 200-day SMA confirms a stronger bearish trend, suggesting that downward momentum is more likely to gain strength rather than reverse. If any of these Fibonacci levels hold, the EUR/USD pair could resume its decline towards the previous swing low. Furthermore, the Stochastic indicator has already reached the overbought zone, indicating that buyers may be exhausted. Additionally, a downward shift in Stochastic suggests that sellers could return. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still has room to rise before hitting the overbought area, implying that the correction might continue until then.
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