June 19 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist.
Asian market trading will be lighter than usual on Monday with
no major regional economic data scheduled and U.S. markets
closed, leaving investors to gear up for the first major event
of the week on Tuesday – China’s interest rate decision.
The People’s Bank of China is likely to cut its one- and
five-year loan prime rate (LPR) lending rates by 10 basis points
to 3.55% and 4.20%, respectively, its latest attempt to bolster
China’s creaking economy and steer it away from deflation.
The PBOC earlier this month cut its medium-term policy loan
rate for the first time in 10 months, paving the way for cuts in
the benchmark LPR rates and bucking the global trend of raising
rates to get inflation back down to policymakers’ targets.
It’s little surprise that the yuan is under heavy selling
pressure – down 4% in the last couple of months and hovering at
seven-month lows. Looser monetary policy will do little to
reverse these dynamics.
Investors on Monday may also keep an eye on headlines from
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing, the
first top American diplomat to visit China in five years amid
frosty bilateral ties and dim prospects for progress on the long
list of disputes between the world’s two largest economies.
Looking ahead and beyond China, investors have two other
Asian monetary policy decisions this week to digest –
Indonesia’s Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Philippines Bangko
Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on Thursday.
Both are likely to leave policy unchanged, with BI
maintaining its benchmark lending rate at 5.75% and the BSP
keeping its key policy rate at 6.25%.
The broader market tone across Asia on Monday could be one
of caution, with investors tempted to take some profits from the
recent rally. Japanese stocks have surged 20% in two months and
are at a 33-year high, while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index last
week jumped 3%, its best week since January.
Other potential market-moving events from the region later
in the week include data on Japanese consumer price inflation
for May on Friday. The annual core CPI rate is expected to ease
to 3.1% from 3.4% in April.
The Bank of Japan last week left its ultra-loose policy
unchanged and signaled it is in no rush to change its dovish
stance even though inflation has exceeded the BOJ’s 2% target
for over a year.
Contrast that with the more hawkish posture of other major
central banks around the world and it is little surprise that
the yen is on the defensive – on Friday it hit a 15-year low
against the euro.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Monday:
– Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong speaks
– U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in China
– Hong Kong unemployment (May)
(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Leslie Adler)
